Understanding roundabout safety through the application of advanced econometric techniques

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جزئیات بیشتر

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۲۰۲۱

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scopus – master journals – JCR

ایمپکت فاکتور

۴٫۲۷۶ در سال ۲۰۲۰

شاخص H_index

۲۶ در سال ۲۰۲۱

شاخص SJR

۰٫۹۰۱ در سال ۲۰۲۰

شاخص Quartile (چارک)

Q1 در سال ۲۰۲۰

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رفرنس

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قوانین استفاده

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توضیحات مختصر محصول
Understanding roundabout safety through the application of advanced econometric techniques

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Abstract

Intersections present a significant safety concern, as  such in  an  effort to reduce the more serious injuries occurring at or near intersections, many jurisdictions have turned to imple- menting roundabouts. Despite the  advantages that  roundabouts  provide, crashes still occur, and less  severe crashes are  on the rise. The study presented in this paper investigates a  crash-based analysis to better understand the factors that may influence less   severe crashes to those of more severe crashes given various roundabout configurations and crash types. Using Oregon’s crash database from 2011 to 2015 a series of log likelihood ratio tests were conducted to validate that four separate random parameters binary probit models by configuration type were warranted. The outcome of each tested configuration (full,  three & four leg, four leg, and three leg  models) shows a major difference in both the combination and variables included in  each model and the magnitude of  impact of  those variables. These differences illustrate that various roundabout configurations (full,  three & four leg, four leg,  and three leg  models) do  in  fact  have different factors highlighting the need to examined crashes at roundabouts by  configuration type. Variables related to driver error, weather, alcohol use, barrier conditions, vehicle movement, location of crash, and restraint use were found as  key  differences between the various tested configurations

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  1. Introduction

2009, while during the period of 2011–۲۰۱۴ there were 48,733 (28%) drivers involved in fatal intersection crashes (AARP and WALC, 2014; Gross  et al., 2013; Lombardi et al., 2017; NHTSA, 2009). Almost one  in every four  fatal crashes occur at or near an intersection (Haleem and Abdel-Aty, 2010). In an effort to reduce the more serious injuries occurring at or near intersec- tions, many jurisdictions have turned to  implementing roundabouts, a proven countermeasure (FHWA, 2015; Gross  et al.,

2013; Nikitin et al., 2017). The construction of roundabouts as an  alternative to signalized or stop sign-controlled intersec- tions has  increased over  the years, with less  than 100  in  ۱۹۹۷ to  as  many as  ۳۲۰۰ in  ۲۰۱۳ and growing (FHWA,  ۲۰۱۵; Montella, 2011; Qin et al., 2011). Many intersections have been converted to  roundabouts to enhance traffic capacity and

reduce crashes (Montella, 2011). Compared to other types of  intersections, roundabouts have some intrinsic properties favoring traffic safety; for  example, they reduce speeds considerably and decrease the number of possible conflict points between road users (Daniels et al., 2011).

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) formally defines a conflict as an  ‘‘observable situation in which  two  or more road  users  approach each  other in time  and  space  to  such  an  extent that there is a risk  of collision  if their  movements remain unchanged.” Traffic at a roundabout is governed by the yield-at-entry rule,  and the relatively lower levels of geometric design standards are  intentionally applied to  force  vehicular trajectories at roundabouts into a very  narrow space. International studies of intersections that have been converted to roundabouts indicate a steady reduction in injury crashes, particularly for  crashes with fatal or  severe injuries (Daniels et al., 2010a). These studies indicate that the crash frequencies (average annual crashes per  roundabout) in the United State are  still  high compared to results from Australia, France, and the United Kingdom (Robinson et al., 2000). These same studies also  report a considerable decrease in  the number of severe crashes (fatalities and crashes involving severe injuries) compared to the reduction of the total number of injury crashes. However, the effects of property-damage-only (no  injury) crashes are  highly ambiguous (Daniels et al., 2008). Souliman (2016) exam- ines the outcomes of single-lane and double-lane roundabouts in the State of Arizona. The author indicated that single-lane roundabouts decreased the overall rate of accidents by 18%, while double-lane roundabouts increased the accident rate by

62% and Damage rates increased by 2% and 60% for single-lane and double-lane roundabouts. Despite the advantages that roundabouts provide, crashes still  occur.

Turning to driver injury severity analyses, various methodological and statistical modeling techniques have been devel- oped and applied to  identify various contributing factors to  intersection related crashes (Lombardi et al., 2017). Roadway geometric features, driver behavior, demographic information, traffic control elements,  traffic compositions, and environ- mental characteristics are  some examples of these factors (Liu et al., 2016; Lombardi et al., 2017; Mannering et al., 2016). To better understand the influences of these factors on  roundabout crashes, it  is essential to  investigate their impacts on crash occurrences in order to  develop effective countermeasures to  reduce crash risk  and severity.

Still,  what is  not  clearly understood is  the relationship between roundabout crash-related factors, crash types, injury severity, and roundabout configurations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to conduct a crash-based analysis to better understand the factors that may influence less  severe crashes to those of more severe crashes given various configurations and crash types for roundabouts. This  will  be  accomplished through exploring advance econometric techniques applied to roundabout crash data that account for unobserved heterogeneity (unobservable in the data). These advanced econometric techniques have been shown to  provide a  more accurate understanding of  contributing factors to  overall safety issues (Mannering et al., 2016; Mannering and Bhat,  ۲۰۱۴). Specifically, this work utilizes the random parameters binary probit model. The random parameters binary probit model is used here to gain  a better understanding of the complex interactions between factors found to  be  significant and those unobserved factors that may be  influencing estimated  outcomes. To accomplish this, Oregon crash data is used. The dataset consists of 1006 crashes in seventeen counties in the State of Oregon for a five-year period (2011–۲۰۱۵). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first  attempt at modeling driver-injury severity for crashes occurring at roundabouts using a random parameter binary probit approach on two injury severity out- comes (injury or no  injury) in Oregon.

 

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