Understanding roundabout safety through the application of advanced econometric techniques
|نوع نگارش مقاله||
scopus – master journals – JCR
۴٫۲۷۶ در سال ۲۰۲۰
۲۶ در سال ۲۰۲۱
۰٫۹۰۱ در سال ۲۰۲۰
|شاخص Quartile (چارک)||
Q1 در سال ۲۰۲۰
خرید محصول توسط کلیه کارت های شتاب امکان پذیر است و بلافاصله پس از خرید، لینک دانلود محصول در اختیار شما قرار خواهد گرفت و هر گونه فروش در سایت های دیگر قابل پیگیری خواهد بود.
فهرست مطالب مقاله:
Intersections present a significant safety concern, as such in an effort to reduce the more serious injuries occurring at or near intersections, many jurisdictions have turned to imple- menting roundabouts. Despite the advantages that roundabouts provide, crashes still occur, and less severe crashes are on the rise. The study presented in this paper investigates a crash-based analysis to better understand the factors that may influence less severe crashes to those of more severe crashes given various roundabout configurations and crash types. Using Oregon’s crash database from 2011 to 2015 a series of log likelihood ratio tests were conducted to validate that four separate random parameters binary probit models by configuration type were warranted. The outcome of each tested configuration (full, three & four leg, four leg, and three leg models) shows a major difference in both the combination and variables included in each model and the magnitude of impact of those variables. These differences illustrate that various roundabout configurations (full, three & four leg, four leg, and three leg models) do in fact have different factors highlighting the need to examined crashes at roundabouts by configuration type. Variables related to driver error, weather, alcohol use, barrier conditions, vehicle movement, location of crash, and restraint use were found as key differences between the various tested configurations
|بخشی از متن مقاله:|
2009, while during the period of 2011–۲۰۱۴ there were 48,733 (28%) drivers involved in fatal intersection crashes (AARP and WALC, 2014; Gross et al., 2013; Lombardi et al., 2017; NHTSA, 2009). Almost one in every four fatal crashes occur at or near an intersection (Haleem and Abdel-Aty, 2010). In an effort to reduce the more serious injuries occurring at or near intersec- tions, many jurisdictions have turned to implementing roundabouts, a proven countermeasure (FHWA, 2015; Gross et al.,
2013; Nikitin et al., 2017). The construction of roundabouts as an alternative to signalized or stop sign-controlled intersec- tions has increased over the years, with less than 100 in ۱۹۹۷ to as many as ۳۲۰۰ in ۲۰۱۳ and growing (FHWA, ۲۰۱۵; Montella, 2011; Qin et al., 2011). Many intersections have been converted to roundabouts to enhance traffic capacity and
reduce crashes (Montella, 2011). Compared to other types of intersections, roundabouts have some intrinsic properties favoring traffic safety; for example, they reduce speeds considerably and decrease the number of possible conflict points between road users (Daniels et al., 2011).
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) formally defines a conflict as an ‘‘observable situation in which two or more road users approach each other in time and space to such an extent that there is a risk of collision if their movements remain unchanged.” Traffic at a roundabout is governed by the yield-at-entry rule, and the relatively lower levels of geometric design standards are intentionally applied to force vehicular trajectories at roundabouts into a very narrow space. International studies of intersections that have been converted to roundabouts indicate a steady reduction in injury crashes, particularly for crashes with fatal or severe injuries (Daniels et al., 2010a). These studies indicate that the crash frequencies (average annual crashes per roundabout) in the United State are still high compared to results from Australia, France, and the United Kingdom (Robinson et al., 2000). These same studies also report a considerable decrease in the number of severe crashes (fatalities and crashes involving severe injuries) compared to the reduction of the total number of injury crashes. However, the effects of property-damage-only (no injury) crashes are highly ambiguous (Daniels et al., 2008). Souliman (2016) exam- ines the outcomes of single-lane and double-lane roundabouts in the State of Arizona. The author indicated that single-lane roundabouts decreased the overall rate of accidents by 18%, while double-lane roundabouts increased the accident rate by
62% and Damage rates increased by 2% and 60% for single-lane and double-lane roundabouts. Despite the advantages that roundabouts provide, crashes still occur.
Turning to driver injury severity analyses, various methodological and statistical modeling techniques have been devel- oped and applied to identify various contributing factors to intersection related crashes (Lombardi et al., 2017). Roadway geometric features, driver behavior, demographic information, traffic control elements, traffic compositions, and environ- mental characteristics are some examples of these factors (Liu et al., 2016; Lombardi et al., 2017; Mannering et al., 2016). To better understand the influences of these factors on roundabout crashes, it is essential to investigate their impacts on crash occurrences in order to develop effective countermeasures to reduce crash risk and severity.
Still, what is not clearly understood is the relationship between roundabout crash-related factors, crash types, injury severity, and roundabout configurations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to conduct a crash-based analysis to better understand the factors that may influence less severe crashes to those of more severe crashes given various configurations and crash types for roundabouts. This will be accomplished through exploring advance econometric techniques applied to roundabout crash data that account for unobserved heterogeneity (unobservable in the data). These advanced econometric techniques have been shown to provide a more accurate understanding of contributing factors to overall safety issues (Mannering et al., 2016; Mannering and Bhat, ۲۰۱۴). Specifically, this work utilizes the random parameters binary probit model. The random parameters binary probit model is used here to gain a better understanding of the complex interactions between factors found to be significant and those unobserved factors that may be influencing estimated outcomes. To accomplish this, Oregon crash data is used. The dataset consists of 1006 crashes in seventeen counties in the State of Oregon for a five-year period (2011–۲۰۱۵). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at modeling driver-injury severity for crashes occurring at roundabouts using a random parameter binary probit approach on two injury severity out- comes (injury or no injury) in Oregon.
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