Survival analysis for motorcycle usage time in work-tours Amir Bahador Parsa a,⇑, Arsham Bakhtiari b, Meeghat Habibian
|نوع نگارش مقاله||
scopus – master journals – JCR
۴٫۲۷۶ در سال ۲۰۲۰
۲۶ در سال ۲۰۲۱
۰٫۹۰۱ در سال ۲۰۲۰
|شاخص Quartile (چارک)||
Q1 در سال ۲۰۲۰
خرید محصول توسط کلیه کارت های شتاب امکان پذیر است و بلافاصله پس از خرید، لینک دانلود محصول در اختیار شما قرار خواهد گرفت و هر گونه فروش در سایت های دیگر قابل پیگیری خواهد بود.
فهرست مطالب مقاله:
The aim of this paper is to identify effective factors on motorcycle usage time in work- tours. To do so, a survey on motorcyclists whose workplaces are in the Central Business District (CBD) of Tehran is conducted. Due to the connected nature of daily activities, travel pattern usually has tour shape, so tour-based approach is employed in this study. For iden- tifying and comparison of variables reflecting motorcycle usage time in simple and com- plex work-tours, two Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models are developed. The results indicate that in simple tours model ‘‘home location” and ‘‘tour start time” are significant while in complex tours model ‘‘trip number”, ‘‘motorcycle age” and ‘‘driving experience” are the most significant factors. Moreover, it has been shown that trip distance and monthly fuel cost are two effective factors on motorcycle usage time in both simple and complex tours. However, trip distance has greater effect in complex tours.
|بخشی از متن مقاله:|
Nowadays, motorcycle usage is increasing in many megacities, especially in developing countries due to unique charac- teristics of motorcycles and congested traffic situation in these cities. Tehran, the capital city of Iran, is not an exception. The growing number of motorcycles have caused a plethora of fatal accidents in addition to environmental implications such as air and noise pollution, which have several irreparable effects on citizens’ physical and psychological health. As an example of this case, motorcycles are responsible for ۲۹% of fatal accidents in Tehran (Transportation and Traffic Organization of Tehran Municipality, 2015). In addition, it has been shown that each motorcycle averagely emits six times more pollutant than a standard euro 2 vehicle in this city (Tehran Air Quality Control Co., 2013) and 49% of Tehran’s noise pollution is caused by motorcycles (Tehran Air Quality Control Co., 2013).
Despite the undeniable role of motorcycles on people’s travel pattern and their contribution in several transportation problems, it should be accentuated that the focus of recent studies in Tehran has been mostly on private cars (Khalilikhah et al., 2016; Habibian and Rezaei, ۲۰۱۷; Habibian and Kermanshah, 2013), and to the best of authors knowledge, motorcycle has been remained deeply unknown. Furthermore, among the few studies which have considered motorcycles, there is almost no literature on motorcycles usage time despite the fact that motorcycle usage time has a direct relation with the environmental impacts such as air and noise pollution, and increasing possibility of accidents.
Nowadays, since people’s travel patterns usually include interplays with other household members and time is a limited resource, inclination of people to chain several trips with different purposes is growing (Ye et al., 2007; McGuckin et al.,
2005). Therefore, linking various daily activities in a tour can have more efficiency and convenience for individuals. In addi- tion, chaining trips would provide a more proper framework for evaluating a variety of transportation policy issues (Ye et al.,
2007; Hensher and Reyes, ۲۰۰۰). The complexity of a tour is defined based on the intermediate stops (Paleti et al., 2011). A tour or chain with a single stop or activity outside the home location is defined as a simple tour, whilst a tour or chain with more than one stop outside the home location is defined as a complex tour (Scheiner, 2014; Khaloei and Habibian, 2017). In addition, a tour that includes at least a work-stop is known as work-tour, while any tour that includes only non-work stops is classified as none-work-tour (Ye et al., 2007; Khaloei and Habibian, 2017).
In the complex tours, dislike public transit and private cars, motorcycle is not restricted by schedules, routes, destinations, traffic congestion, and parking availability. Thus, using motorcycle provides more convenience and flexibility for those with greater number of stops in their tours. As a result, since motorcyclists with complex work-tours need to have more stops in their tours, they may rely more on their motorcycles in comparison to motorcyclists with simple work-tours. Therefore, it seems that the travel pattern of those motorcyclists with complex tours be completely different from those with simple tours.
Using sample data of those motorcyclists whose workplaces are in the CBD of Tehran, this paper aims to distinguish between effective factors on motorcycle usage time in simple and complex work-tours. As motorcyclists with different tour types may differently rely on their motorcycles, and consequently their usage be also different, the results of this study may help policymakers to design appropriate transportation policy issues.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. First, research background is briefly described. Afterward, the case study is introduced. Then, the data collection procedure, and the descriptive analysis is presented. This is followed by a description of the methodology, as well as the modeling results. Finally, the discussion and key conclusions of the study and recommendations for future studies are provided.
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