Survival analysis for motorcycle usage time in work-tours Amir Bahador Parsa a Arsham Bakhtiari b, Meeghat Habibian

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ایمپکت فاکتور

۴٫۲۷۶ در سال ۲۰۲۰

شاخص H_index

۲۶ در سال ۲۰۲۱

شاخص SJR

۰٫۹۰۱ در سال ۲۰۲۰

شاخص Quartile (چارک)

Q1 در سال ۲۰۲۰

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قوانین استفاده

خرید محصول توسط کلیه کارت های شتاب امکان پذیر است و بلافاصله پس از خرید، لینک دانلود محصول در اختیار شما قرار خواهد گرفت و هر گونه فروش در سایت های دیگر قابل پیگیری خواهد بود.

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Survival analysis for motorcycle usage time in work-tours Amir Bahador Parsa a Arsham Bakhtiari b, Meeghat Habibian

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Survival analysis for motorcycle usage time in work-tours Amir Bahador Parsa a Arsham Bakhtiari b, Meeghat Habibian


The  aim of  this paper is  to identify effective factors on  motorcycle usage time in  work- tours. To do  so,  a survey on  motorcyclists whose workplaces are  in  the Central Business District (CBD) of Tehran is conducted. Due  to the connected nature of daily activities, travel pattern usually has tour shape, so tour-based approach is employed in this study. For iden- tifying and comparison of variables reflecting motorcycle usage time in  simple and com- plex work-tours, two Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models are  developed. The  results indicate that in  simple tours model ‘‘home location” and ‘‘tour  start time” are  significant while in  complex tours model ‘‘trip  number”, ‘‘motorcycle age”  and ‘‘driving experience” are   the most significant factors. Moreover, it has been shown that  trip distance and monthly fuel  cost are  two effective factors on  motorcycle usage time in  both simple and complex tours. However, trip distance has greater effect in  complex tours.

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  1. Introduction

Nowadays, motorcycle usage is increasing in many megacities, especially in developing countries due to unique charac- teristics of motorcycles and congested traffic situation in these cities. Tehran, the capital city of Iran, is not  an exception. The growing number of motorcycles have caused a plethora of fatal accidents in addition to environmental implications such as air and noise pollution, which have several irreparable effects on citizens’ physical and psychological health. As an example of this case,  motorcycles are  responsible for  ۲۹% of fatal accidents in  Tehran (Transportation and Traffic  Organization  of Tehran Municipality, 2015). In addition, it has  been shown that each motorcycle averagely emits six times more pollutant than a standard euro 2 vehicle in this city (Tehran Air Quality Control Co., 2013) and 49% of Tehran’s noise pollution is caused by motorcycles (Tehran Air Quality Control Co., 2013).

Despite the undeniable role  of motorcycles on  people’s travel pattern and their contribution in  several transportation problems,  it   should  be   accentuated that  the  focus of  recent  studies  in   Tehran  has   been  mostly  on   private  cars (Khalilikhah et al., 2016; Habibian and Rezaei,  ۲۰۱۷; Habibian and Kermanshah, 2013), and to the best of authors knowledge, motorcycle has  been remained deeply unknown. Furthermore, among the few  studies which have considered motorcycles, there is almost no literature on motorcycles usage time despite the fact that motorcycle usage time has  a direct relation with the environmental impacts such as air  and noise pollution, and increasing possibility of accidents.

Nowadays, since people’s travel patterns usually include interplays with other household members and time is a limited resource, inclination of people to  chain several trips with different purposes is growing (Ye et al., 2007; McGuckin et al.,

۲۰۰۵). Therefore, linking various daily activities in a tour can  have more efficiency and convenience for individuals. In addi- tion, chaining trips would provide a more proper framework for evaluating a variety of transportation policy issues (Ye et al.,

۲۰۰۷; Hensher and Reyes,  ۲۰۰۰). The complexity of a tour is defined based on the intermediate stops (Paleti et al., 2011). A tour or chain with a single stop or activity outside the home location is defined as a simple tour, whilst a tour or chain with more than one  stop outside the home location is defined as a complex tour (Scheiner, 2014; Khaloei and Habibian, 2017). In addition, a tour that includes at least a work-stop is known as work-tour, while any tour that includes only  non-work stops is classified as none-work-tour (Ye et al., 2007; Khaloei and Habibian, 2017).

In the complex tours, dislike public transit and private cars, motorcycle is not  restricted by schedules, routes, destinations, traffic congestion, and parking availability. Thus,  using motorcycle provides more convenience and flexibility for those with greater number of stops in their tours. As a result, since motorcyclists with complex work-tours need to have more stops in their tours, they may rely  more on  their motorcycles in comparison to  motorcyclists with simple work-tours. Therefore, it seems that the travel pattern of those motorcyclists with complex tours be  completely different from those with simple tours.

Using  sample data of those motorcyclists whose workplaces are  in  the CBD of Tehran, this paper aims to  distinguish between effective factors on motorcycle usage time in simple and complex work-tours. As motorcyclists with different tour types may differently rely  on their motorcycles, and consequently their usage be also  different, the results of this study may help policymakers to  design appropriate transportation policy issues.

The  remainder of this paper is organized as follows. First,  research background is briefly described. Afterward, the case study is introduced. Then,  the data collection procedure, and the descriptive analysis is presented. This  is followed by  a description of the methodology,  as  well  as  the modeling results. Finally, the discussion and key  conclusions of the study and recommendations for future studies are  provided.

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