Optimizing risk mitigation investment strategies for improving post-earthquake road network resilience
|نوع نگارش مقاله||
scopus – master journals – JCR
۴٫۲۷۶ در سال ۲۰۲۰
۲۶ در سال ۲۰۲۱
۰٫۹۰۱ در سال ۲۰۲۰
|شاخص Quartile (چارک)||
Q1 در سال ۲۰۲۰
خرید محصول توسط کلیه کارت های شتاب امکان پذیر است و بلافاصله پس از خرید، لینک دانلود محصول در اختیار شما قرار خواهد گرفت و هر گونه فروش در سایت های دیگر قابل پیگیری خواهد بود.
فهرست مطالب مقاله:
The road network is a major urban lifeline, and its post-earthquake resiliency is crucial to rapid and reliable rescue work. This study aims to optimize risk mitigation investment strategies for improving post-earthquake road network resilience. First, instead of theoret- ical assumptions on link failure probability, an empirical predictive model of debris obstruction of collapsed buildings was used to calculate link connectivity probability. Second, the Monte Carlo simulation method was employed to calculate post-earthquake road network accessibility based on the results of link connectivity reliability. Third, an optimal risk mitigation investment model was used in order to maximize post- earthquake network accessibility with different government budgets. A case study was analyzed by using the proposed method in an Shanghai historical area. Results may help local governments make better decisions of risk mitigation strategies in regard to earthquakes.
|بخشی از متن مقاله:|
The worldwide urbanization development brings public safety as a major focus of governments. Natural disasters such as earthquakes can potentially cause extensive amounts of damage to property and life. The urban road network is an impor- tant lifeline following an earthquake, and its connectivity is essential for emergency rescue work. Taking the 1976 Tangshan earthquake and the 1995 Hanshin earthquake in Japan as examples, survivors of the first day were 81% and 80.5%, which dropped to ۳۳٫۷% and 36.8% the next day(Guo and Chen, ۱۹۸۰, Yang and Shen, ۲۰۰۵).
Previous studies investigated the impacts of earthquakes on road network vulnerability, see Mine and Kawai (۱۹۸۲) and Berdica (2002) as examples, and mitigation strategies for improving road network resiliency (Ong et al., 2011). In general, this problem is concerned with finding the overall possible loss of road network under certain link failure probability follow- ing earthquakes. The simulation is usually used for finding critical links or optimal facility locations under different scenar- ios. However, previous studies usually assumed a certain link will fail randomly or under some theoretical assumptions following an earthquake (Rupi et al., 2015). In fact, the link failure probability after earthquake is directly related to building and roadway conditions along the link, for example the structure reliability of buildings and the widths of roadways. It is essential to incorporate the empirical link failure probability into network modeling, on the one hand, it may benefit to more
accurately evaluate the possible loss of road network following earthquake; on the other hand, it could help to connect the mitigation investment strategies with engineering work for improving the building and roadway conditions.
In this study, an empirical method was proposed in order to optimize risk mitigation investment strategies based on post- earthquake road network resilience. First, instead of theoretical assumptions, link connectivity probability was calculated based on the predictive model of debris obstructing collapsed buildings. Second, post-earthquake road network accessibility was evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation method based on link connectivity reliability results. Third, an optimal risk mit- igation investment model was proposed in order to maximize post-earthquake network accessibility with different govern- ment budgets. A case study in the Shanghai historical area was conducted by using the proposed method.
The contents of the paper are as follows. Section 2 provides a general literature review of post-earthquake road network vulnerability analysis. Section 3 describes the methodology of post-earthquake link connectivity reliability. Section 4 shows how to evaluate post-earthquake road network reliability. Section 5 proposes earthquake mitigation investment model. Sec- tion 6 describes the case study in Yu Garden, a historical area in Shanghai.
لطفا پیش از ارسال نظر، خلاصه قوانین زیر را مطالعه کنید: فارسی بنویسید و از کیبورد فارسی استفاده کنید. بهتر است از فضای خالی (Space) بیشازحدِ معمول، شکلک یا ایموجی استفاده نکنید و از کشیدن حروف یا کلمات با صفحهکلید بپرهیزید. نظرات خود را براساس تجربه و استفادهی عملی و با دقت به نکات فنی ارسال کنید؛ بدون تعصب به محصول خاص، مزایا و معایب را بازگو کنید و بهتر است از ارسال نظرات چندکلمهای خودداری کنید.