Examining the effects of urbanization and purchasing power on the relationship between motorcycle ownership and economic development: A panel data

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Examining the effects of urbanization and purchasing power on the relationship between motorcycle ownership and economic development: A panel data

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The  aim of the present study was to examine the effect of urbanization, purchasing power,        ۲۸

and income on motorcycle ownership and the effects of interactions between these factors.       ۲۹

Specifically, we  examined how the inverse-U relationship between motorcycle ownership       ۳۰

and economic development changed in  response to different levels of  purchasing power       ۳۱

and urbanization. We  apply a  fixed effects negative binomial panel regression analysis      ۳۲

بخشی از متن مقاله:
  1. Introduction


۴۷                Motorcycles are  the favoured mode of transport mode in South-East Asia countries1, as they are a relatively cheap form  of

48            transport and  offer  a fast  means of transport when travelling on congested city  streets. Furthermore, they require just  a small

49            parking space.  The number of motorcycles has  increased each  year  with concurrent rises  in the  total number of motorcycle-

50            related deaths. Motorized two- and  three-wheelers represent 43% of all deaths in South East  Asia countries (WHO, 2018). An

51            investigation of motorcycle-related deaths indicated that riding a motorcycle was  ۳۹٫۴  and  ۱۷٫۵  times riskier than driving a

52            car in the  United Kingdom and  Australia, respectively (Houston, 2011). Historically, in 1963,  motorcycles have  played a crucial

53            part in the  motor vehicle fleets of some currently developed countries such  as Poland (70%), Sweden (70%), Portugal (64%), Japan

60%), Netherlands (58%), Italy  (۵۵%), Austria (44%), and  France  (۴۱%). By the  year  ۲۰۱۰,  these percentages have  dropped to

55            below 14% (Nishitateno and  Burke,  ۲۰۱۴).

۵۶               Table 1 presents data on motorcycles for various country groups. Motorcycle ownership is higher in middle-income coun-

57         tries (114 motorcycles per  thousand population in 2013) than either high-income (83)  or low-income (82)  countries. This is

58        an  initial indication of  the existence of  an  inverse-U shape relationship between motorcycle ownership with per  capita

59         income. In contrast, motorcycle ownership is higher in low-urbanized countries (147) than either medium-urbanized (71)

60         or high-urbanized (77)  countries. This illustrates the initial existence of a U-shape relationship between motorcycle owner-

61         ship with urbanization level.

62                 Recently, several studies confirmed an inverse-U relationship between motorcycle ownership and economic development

63          (Sillaparcharn, 2007; Nishitateno and Burke,  ۲۰۱۴; Law et al., 2015). This relationship is referred as the motorcycle Kuznets

64         curve (Nishitateno and Burke,  ۲۰۱۴), and it has  been attributed to  changes in the fundamental development of a country.

65          These comprised developments in urbanization, road infrastructure, travel demand growth and variations in motorcycle ver-

66        sus  car  ownerships.

67                Three theories have been proposed to  support the hypothesis of motorcycle Kuznets curve: (1)  the scale of economic

68         activity, (2) diversity in the economic activity composition, (3) increased demand for quality vehicle in accordance with eco-

69         nomic development. Growth in income has  a scale effect on the motorcycle ownership-economic growth relationship. Dargay

70         and Gately (1999) indicated that economic development was  usually accompanied by  an  equivalent increase in  mobility.

71         Numerous studies showed that in  the beginning phases of  economic development, the growing demand for  mobility

72         increased motorcycle ownership (Pongthanaisawan and Sorapipatana, 2010; Law  et al., 2015). Therefore, the scale effect

73        is generally considered to  be  a monotonic function with motorcycle ownership increasing as  per  capita income, increases

74        as  illustrated in  Phase I in  Fig. 1. The  composition effect, also  known as  the substitution effect, results in  a transformation

75        in  vehicle ownerships from low-cost,  high-risk motorcycles to  high-cost, low-risk passenger cars  (Phase II in  Fig. 1). This

76         transformation is  most likely  explained by  issues pertaining to  safety, prestige, comfort and convenience as  per  capita

77         income grow (Pongthanaisawan and Sorapipatana, 2010; Law  et al., 2015). The  third effect, the abatement effect,  reduces

78         motorcycle ownership (Phase III in Fig. 1) relates to urbanization and road infrastructure growth. This effect can  be viewed

79         from a demand and supply perspective. On the demand side,  at a relatively early stage of development, the range of eco-

80         nomic development is confined and less  diverse in  scope than at later stages of development. These circumstances lead

81        to  the use  of motorcycles to  fulfil  the demand for  short-distance travel. As the economy and urban sprawl grows, there is

82         more demand for  long-distance travel, which contributes to  automobile dependency. On the supply side,  at a low  level  of

83         development stages, most of  the population is  centralized in  smaller areas, and commercial activities primarily operate

84        on  a local  scale. Therefore, there is more government investment in the development of local  roads. As pointed out  earlier,

85         this will increase the use  of motorcycles for short-distance travel. However, as the level  of development increases, more pub-

86        lic resources are invested in constructing high-mobility roads, which are needed to sustain increased economic development.

87        The latter leads to  an  increase in car  ownership to  meet long-distance travel needs.

88               A previous study proposed that road users were more likely  to  opt  for motorcycles under conditions of less  purchasing

89         power, primarily due to their lower running and purchase costs (Law  et al., 2015). This resulted in a rise  in the motorcycle

90         to passenger car (MPC) ownership ratio at lower income levels. However, as income levels rose,  the purchasing power impact

91        on  the MPC ownership ratio decreased. The  hypothesis put forward in the present study differs from that proposed in the

92         previous study in  two aspects. First,  we  anticipate an  inverse-U relationship between CPI (a  proxy for  purchasing power)

93          and motorcycle ownership. According to  the proposed relationship, motorcycle ownership will  rise  at relatively low  level

94        of CPI due to high purchasing power, but decline once a CPI threshold level  has  been exceeded. This relationship is explained

95        by  motorcycles potentially becoming less  affordable as  purchasing power exceeds a threshold level.  This  is due to  higher

96        level  of  CPI dampen the purchasing power of  consumer. Second, the inverse-U relationship between purchasing power

97         and motorcycle ownership may change as urbanization rises. This may be the result of urbanization increasing the demand

98        for travel, particularly long-distance car  travel at higher urbanization levels.

99               Growth in the export of natural resources, manufactured goods and agricultural products facilitates rapid urbanization

100         and growth of countries (Schultz, 1953; Zhang, 2017; Gollin  et al., 2007, 2016). However, urbanization may lead to several

101         transportation-related problems, such as  a  lack  of  sufficient numbers of parking spaces, traffic congestion, mobility and

102          accessibility constraints. Therefore, we  anticipate that a  higher urbanization level  would likely  affect fuel  consumption

103         and motor vehicle ownership (number and type) decisions of households.

104               The aim  of the present study was  to examine the effect of purchasing power, urbanization and income growth on motor-

105        cycle  ownership and the effects of interactions between these factors. Specifically, we examined how the previously reported

106          inverse-U relationship between motorcycle ownership and economic development changed in response to different levels of

107         purchasing power and urbanization.


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